Exhibit The Don!

I'll start with yesterdays blog runner. I put up Finlay in the 16:30 Newcastle and I was devastated when he didn't win. He jumped and travelled superbly, he jumped to the front over the last 2 fences but he was nailed on the line by the rallying Allanard. Finlay was backed in from 11/4 early into 2/1 at the off so plenty was expected. He will find a handicap somewhere and may be one to watch, but he needs to be held up until the last minute as he looked to find little infront, though I'm taking nothing away from the ride by Allanard's jockey.

Selection:
Finlay 2pts win @ 11/4. Result - 2nd @ 2/1. -2pts.

Daily Profit: -2pts.
March Profit: -1.9pts.
Overall Profit: -1.9pts.

It's Lincoln day and what I still see as the start of the flat season despite there having already been 3 meetings on the turf. Paul Hanagan notched up a 4-timer on this day last year and went on to win the jockeys title, it's hard to see that happening again but he has a decent ride in the Lincoln on Irish Heartbeat, but I fancy another Fahey runner in the big one. I'm taking a look at the Spring Mile first:

14:05 Doncaster Spring Mile
I narrowed this down to 4 runners; Eton Forever, Kyllachy Star, Normen Orpen and Dance and Dance.

Eton Forever is only Roger Varian's second runner since taking over the yard. Neil Callan is up to ride this unexposed son of Ontario, he is having just his 4th start. This return to 8f will suit and he's on a mark he can win off. He ran off this mark of 92 when beaten 2 1/4 lengths over 7f by Navajo Chief who is now rated 9lb higher. His next and latest start was a fair 5th behind Kakatosi, again over 7 furlongs. He was beaten just 3 1/4 lengths that day which in hindsight looks good as Kakatosi is now rated 21lb higher. The good ground is no problem and he may just been well handicapped. Priced up at about 9/1.

Kyllachy Star could start off a big day for 5lb claimer Lee Topliss and trainer Richard Fahey. Kyllachy Star could be another who is well handicapped of a mark of 92 and with Topliss' 5lb claim to boot he could be a good shout. He ran in the Irish Lincoln on soft ground at the Curragh 13 days ago, he finished 1/4 length 3rd that day and as a result, to my suprise, he was dropped 2lb for it. He will be fitter for that run. He does look ahead of the handicapper on this mark having finished a strong second to Hujaylea in August off 91. Hujaylea's jockey was claiming 7lb that day in the Irish Cambridgeshire off a mark of 87 (effectively 80) and he is now rated 102 (3/4 lengths second in a Meydan handicap off that mark without a claimer). The quicker ground should bring out some start of season improvement and he could go close at around the 14/1 mark.

Norman Orpen was dropped 6lb for a 3 length 5th to the ever improving Lowther. He has had one run on turf on rattling quick ground on his debut, beaten a head. Since then he has been campaigned on the A/W and though he has had a longish season he comes here relatively fresh after a month break between December and January. He does have to produce a career best to win this being 5lb above his highest winning handicap mark but Ryan Moore is an eyecatching jockey booking for the Jane Chapple-Hyam stable, the trainer has had 3 winners from her last 9 runners. Norman Orpen is back over 8 furlongs now having been running over 7f and 9f more recently. The 8 furlongs looks to be a big plus as he is 2/2 over this distance. He's drawn in stall 17 and I'm not sure if that's a good thing or not but he also looks to have a nice chance. 11/1.

Dance and Dance is my fancy for this though. He looks well ahead of the handicapper right now. His last start of the season saw him beat Lincoln runner Gunner Lindley in a strong looking handicap. He gave 8lb to that rival when beating him in a drving finish, showing a good attitude in the process. Gunner Lindley won well next time off 8lb higher and is now rated 7lb higher. Dance and Dance comes back to action after winter break off 3lb higher but with Adam Beschizza claiming 5lb he is effectively 2lb lower than his last winning mark. Back in 4th in that handicap was Credit Swap who went on to win the Cambridgeshire off a 2lb lower mark next time. Dance and Dance goes well fresh having won comfortably on last seasons reapperance beating Viva Ronado giving him 6lb. 4th placed was Fastha who is now rated 18lb higher having won the Coral Sprint Handicap on his last start. The good ground won't be a problem, he won on soft last time but he's gone a close 2nd twice on good to firm ground, this should be just about perfect for him. He is a decent price at 16/1.

Selection:
Dance and Dance 0.5pts e/way @ 16/1 (Bet365, Ladbrokes).

15:10 Doncaster Lincoln Handicap
Taqleed fits the profile of the winner. He's an unexposed 4yo who could be well handicapped. Last years winner Penitent was of the same profile, he was hammered into 10/3 and landed a huge gamble. Taqleed has also been smashed up and is a high of 9/2 now in a very competitive race. He's sure to go off shorter than that. John Gosden has his runners in good form for the start of the season as always but I think Taqleed worth taking on at silly odds. I like the look of Prime Exhibit for Richard Fahey. Paul Hanagan has chosen to ride Irish Heartbeat, the winner of last years Spring Mile. He is sure to win handicaps this season and obviously goes well at this time of year and at this track. He wants a quickly run race and will get that, he'll be one of the last off the bridle and he should go close but I think the 5lb claim of Lee Topliss could swing it in Prime Exhibit's favour. He is in my eyes a winner without a penalty having been an unlucky 3rd on his prep run, a 6f event at Wolverhampton. He met trouble in running on the turn and was lucky to stay on his feet. He's unpenalised for that having eventually finished 3rd, Paul Hanagan rode that day which means with Topliss up now he's on 5lb better terms. Prime Exhibit ran a good second to handicap good thing Penitent in this race last year, with Topliss' claim he runs off effectively 2lb higher this year (Carson caimed 3lb last year). He was 3 1/2 lengths clear of the field when second that year so he looks handicapped to go close again this year. His form over 8 furlongs reads 44422. Firms are likely to go first 5 in the morning so he is a value e/way bet from stall 1. Penitent won from this stall last year and though that means little for this years race he will have the rail to help him and it'll see him get a prominent position, provided he gets out on terms.

Selection:
Prime Exhibit 0.5pts e/way @ 9/1 (William Hill, Victor Chandler).

16:15 Doncaster Bob Beevers Memorial Maiden Stakes
Sud Pacifique has finished 2nd on both starts so far, going off at even money and 4/7 so quite expensive to follow so far. Beaten both times by Mark Johnston horses which means he could have him covered with The Bells O Peover. That one looked suited by the step up to this trip last time in Deauville and the return to turf could bring out more improvement. Another with a chance is Communicator for Michael Bell, his runners are quite forward for the start of the season. Being out of Motivator he is expected to be well suited by the step up to 10f and with Jamie Spencer riding again he should go close. The once to concentrate on, in my opinion, is Cobbs Quay. He has been the subject of some good gallop reports of late, he showed promise in both runs last season and being related to Sadler's Wells he should also be suited by the step up in trip. He's out of Danehill Dancer so should come on to be a better 3yo than he was 2yo and he's likely to be suited by better ground. Neil Callan has been riding well this seasson and Gosden is going well, plenty looks in Cobbs Quay's favour for a big run.

Selection:
Cobbs Quay 1pts win @ 4/1+.

Away from Doncaster over jumps I am taken by one runner at Uttoxeter.

17:45 Uttoxeter Handicap Chase
Blackpool Billy has the ability to win this race but he's refused to either jump or start on his last two starts and his temperament has to be of some concern. He has Tony Kelly riding now taking off 7lb so he is well handicapped too, the blinkers go on first time today and he should get off alright but ideally with all that said he would want the ground to be much softer than he's likely to get. On the weather forecast there is due to be less than 1mm of rain and the wind could be quite strong so the ground could dry out leaving conditions well against him. Willandrich has gone up 9lb for a comfortable success last time, well suited by the extra distance and the quicker ground. He remains well handicapped on old hurdles form but the drop in trip may not be to his liking and at likely short odds he is worth taking on. Extra Bold is Emma Lavelle's only runner of the day and should have a good chance. The quicker ground will suit his chances and the step up in trip is also in his favour. He got bogged down in the softer ground on his last two starts. This race is stronger but it could be that the lower racing weight will help his chances. He remains on a mark of 101 and before his first run of the season Emma Lavelle stated in her Stable Tour that she felt he was well handicapped off this mark. Lavelle's last runner was a winner and from Jack Doyle's last 9 rides he's had 3 winners, 1 second and 2 thirds. One of this other rides was well in command when falling at the last so Jack Doyle is obviously riding well at the moment. This is his only ride of the day.
Selection:
Extra Bold 1pts win @ 5/1+

Good luck with your bets today.