13:45 - Sam Winner @ 5/1.
15:25 - Crescent Island e/way @ 25/1.
16:15 - Quinz @ e/way @ 16/1.
17:35 - Persian Snow @ 9/1.
Friday 8 April 2011
Thursday 7 April 2011
Aintee Day Two.
The write-up's will be up in morning again.
14:00 Aintree - Sire De Grugy. 3pts win @ 5/1. (Bet365, Skybet)
15:40 Aintree - Mon Parrain. 1pts win @ 5/1. (Victor Chandler)
17:25 Aintree - Elegant Touch. 0.5pts e/way @ 28/1. (1/4 odds 1, 2, 3 Skybet)
14:00 Aintree - Sire De Grugy. 3pts win @ 5/1. (Bet365, Skybet)
15:40 Aintree - Mon Parrain. 1pts win @ 5/1. (Victor Chandler)
17:25 Aintree - Elegant Touch. 0.5pts e/way @ 28/1. (1/4 odds 1, 2, 3 Skybet)
Wednesday 6 April 2011
Aintree Day One.
Yesterdays runner came 3rd again, and as before, with hindsight I should of backed him e/way but there we go, again.
Daily Profit: -1pts.
Overall Profit: -6.4pts.
Here are the write-up's I promised this morning.
14:00 Aintree Liverpool Hurdle
Big Buck's and Grand Crus are likely to be hard to pass once again and the battle between them should be even better today as I don't feel Big Buck's produces his best at Aintree, he loves the Cheltenham hill and I don't think a flatter track like Aintree gives him the opportunity to gallop all over his rivals. It's a much sharper track and though that will not suit Grand Crus either, class should shine through. Having said that, with those doubts in my mind I thought it to be much wiser to search for an e/way horse at a price who could sneak past one of those two or in my dreams, both. Firstly I thought Carlito Brigante, he certainly should run his race on a track that will suit but I'm still not convinced. He didn't exactly have a hard race at Cheltenham but on first thoughts he won that race because he was 'well-handicapped' as it were. He was beaten by Alaivan previously off levels and Alaivan was beaten 2 1/2 lengths 6th in the County Hurdle next time. The step up in trip suited Carlito Brigante and he goes up even futher now, this will be run at a strong pace though at it's not the easiest race for him to try this trip first time. The Coral Cup was a slowly run affair (8.30s slower than standard) which helped, though he may run well this is a big step up and he is likely to struggle. Khyber Kim was fancied to win the Champion Hurdle by connections but in his ever rising age he may just not have the flat speed to deal with horses such as Hurricane Fly anymore and this step up in trip is interesting to say the least. I wouldn't want to be backing him today but he could spring a suprise if as good as ever, and let's not forget he won at this meeting last year. Knockara Beau sticks out to me as the best e/way bet. I orginally put him at 40/1 with Ladbrokes but he's currently 50/1 with Bet365 and on the same place terms (1/4 odds - 1, 2, 3 places). Knockara Beau was beaten 10 lengths by Grand Crus in the Cleeve Hurdle and even though he is on 4lb worse terms I think he could reduce that margin. Knockara Beau's form at Cheltenham over hurdles reads 54724 whereas Grand Crus shows stats of 112 and Grand Crus's form on a galloping track is much better than his form on sharper tracks (beaten at Aintree on debut and beaten twice at Taunton), it's much the opposite for Knockara Beau who on sharper tracks (all codes) goes much better (Aintree, Kelso, Musselburgh and Cartmel), his form reads 11P3117115. He was 4th in the Pertemps Final in a decent weight carrying performance giving away 19lb+ to the 4 horses who finished ahead of him and was only beaten around 14 lengths by the winner, who was given a fairly soft lead. He does have 14lb to find with Grand Crus and 19lb to find with Big Buck's but he is worth chancing on a track that clearly suits him at such a big price.
Selection:
Knockara Beau 0.5pts e/way @ 50/1 (Bet365)
15:05 Aintree Totesport Bowl Chase
Denman deserves to be favourite after a very good second to the classy Long Run in the Gold Cup but at 11/8 he is worth taking on. He was unsuited by the track on his one run here when he fell in this race in April 2009. He had a hard race at Cheltenhan and though it's been said his breathing operation has helped him get over his races better I still wouldn't want to take those short odds about him, especially as he's not won since 2009. Nacarat has been backed this morning but he won't want the ground to be too soft and he's an unconvincing sort who doesn't always see out his races. Carole's Legacy is having her last race of her career and it'll be brilliant if she can win but she's been nailed by a couple of fairly useful but not top class runners in handicaps lately, she has to find plenty now stepped up to Grade 1 company, she doesn't care what sort of track she runs on, she always runs her race so she can't be discounted in receipt of 7lb from the field. Punchestowns doesn't stay this far in my opinion, he was flattered to beat Pasco last time, that one went out like a light in front and Punchestown just had to carry on galloping to pass him. He has a great record away from Cheltenham beaten just once (by a short head) 1111121 but his jumping still doesn't convince. I'm going to take a chance on Deep Purple. He's fairly useful on his day and though he has plenty to find with Denman he is closely matched with all the others. He's not been seen to his best since pulling up in the King George in 2009 but he did run a good 3rd behind Nacarat at Wetherby since, giving Nacarat 10lb beaten 6 1/2 lengths. It's confusing as to why Deep Purple has not been tried at this trip more often as his form over 25f reads 13 and he was staying on late both times. He's been freshened up by a run behind Riverside Theatre in February, keep away from Cheltenham to come here and he could just have the beating of these. The track will suit him having won at sharp tracks like Stratford, Taunton and Newton Abbot in the past, the flatter track will play to his strengths as he's shown improved form at Kempton and Huntingdon. I'd give him a good shout at good odds.
Selection:
Deep Purple 0.5pts win @ 9/1. (Bet365, Ladbrokes, Paddy Power)
16:15 Aintree Red Rum Handicap
Leo's Lucky Star is favourite at 5/1 and with a 7lb pull with Grand Annual winner Oiseau De Nuit he may reverse form but it should be close between them but with a line through Cornas the selection has to be Woolcombe Folly. Cornas beat Leo's Lucky Star by 9 3/4 lengths giving him 6lb and Cornas also beat Tchico Polos by 2 3/4 lengths in receipt of 4lb in that same race. Leo's Lucky Star is 5lb better off with Tchico Polos for that but he may even struggle reverse that form. Woolcombe Folly demolished Cornas in receipt of 1lb. He beat him by 24 lengths and looked to have plenty in hand. He didn't seem right in the Queen Mother Champion Chase and his form at Cheltenham is poor reading 010, but he is unbeaten for the season going into the festival each time and it has to be said that he is very much unsuited by that undulating track. Not given a hard race at Cheltenham and will come here back in a handicap relatively fresh. He's up 13lb for that last win but the way he won suggested he won't be troubled by that sort of rise. Ruby Walsh rides Tchico Polos of the 2 Nicholls runners but that is more due to the fact the Woolcombe Folly may need Ryan Mahon's 5lb claim to reduce his weight a little. He has to give 4lb to Tchico Polos and 21lb to Leo's Lucky Star but I think he is more than capable of doing so. The ground will suit and so will a flatter track. He ran a quicker time than Master Minded over the same CD at the Tingle Creek meeting and if Master Minded was in this race he'd surely be around even money favourite if not shorter, so at 7/1 Woolcombe Folly looks cracking value.
Selection:
Woolcombe Folly 1.5pts win @ 7/1 (Ladbrokes)
Good luck with all your bets.
Daily Profit: -1pts.
Overall Profit: -6.4pts.
Here are the write-up's I promised this morning.
14:00 Aintree Liverpool Hurdle
Big Buck's and Grand Crus are likely to be hard to pass once again and the battle between them should be even better today as I don't feel Big Buck's produces his best at Aintree, he loves the Cheltenham hill and I don't think a flatter track like Aintree gives him the opportunity to gallop all over his rivals. It's a much sharper track and though that will not suit Grand Crus either, class should shine through. Having said that, with those doubts in my mind I thought it to be much wiser to search for an e/way horse at a price who could sneak past one of those two or in my dreams, both. Firstly I thought Carlito Brigante, he certainly should run his race on a track that will suit but I'm still not convinced. He didn't exactly have a hard race at Cheltenham but on first thoughts he won that race because he was 'well-handicapped' as it were. He was beaten by Alaivan previously off levels and Alaivan was beaten 2 1/2 lengths 6th in the County Hurdle next time. The step up in trip suited Carlito Brigante and he goes up even futher now, this will be run at a strong pace though at it's not the easiest race for him to try this trip first time. The Coral Cup was a slowly run affair (8.30s slower than standard) which helped, though he may run well this is a big step up and he is likely to struggle. Khyber Kim was fancied to win the Champion Hurdle by connections but in his ever rising age he may just not have the flat speed to deal with horses such as Hurricane Fly anymore and this step up in trip is interesting to say the least. I wouldn't want to be backing him today but he could spring a suprise if as good as ever, and let's not forget he won at this meeting last year. Knockara Beau sticks out to me as the best e/way bet. I orginally put him at 40/1 with Ladbrokes but he's currently 50/1 with Bet365 and on the same place terms (1/4 odds - 1, 2, 3 places). Knockara Beau was beaten 10 lengths by Grand Crus in the Cleeve Hurdle and even though he is on 4lb worse terms I think he could reduce that margin. Knockara Beau's form at Cheltenham over hurdles reads 54724 whereas Grand Crus shows stats of 112 and Grand Crus's form on a galloping track is much better than his form on sharper tracks (beaten at Aintree on debut and beaten twice at Taunton), it's much the opposite for Knockara Beau who on sharper tracks (all codes) goes much better (Aintree, Kelso, Musselburgh and Cartmel), his form reads 11P3117115. He was 4th in the Pertemps Final in a decent weight carrying performance giving away 19lb+ to the 4 horses who finished ahead of him and was only beaten around 14 lengths by the winner, who was given a fairly soft lead. He does have 14lb to find with Grand Crus and 19lb to find with Big Buck's but he is worth chancing on a track that clearly suits him at such a big price.
Selection:
Knockara Beau 0.5pts e/way @ 50/1 (Bet365)
15:05 Aintree Totesport Bowl Chase
Denman deserves to be favourite after a very good second to the classy Long Run in the Gold Cup but at 11/8 he is worth taking on. He was unsuited by the track on his one run here when he fell in this race in April 2009. He had a hard race at Cheltenhan and though it's been said his breathing operation has helped him get over his races better I still wouldn't want to take those short odds about him, especially as he's not won since 2009. Nacarat has been backed this morning but he won't want the ground to be too soft and he's an unconvincing sort who doesn't always see out his races. Carole's Legacy is having her last race of her career and it'll be brilliant if she can win but she's been nailed by a couple of fairly useful but not top class runners in handicaps lately, she has to find plenty now stepped up to Grade 1 company, she doesn't care what sort of track she runs on, she always runs her race so she can't be discounted in receipt of 7lb from the field. Punchestowns doesn't stay this far in my opinion, he was flattered to beat Pasco last time, that one went out like a light in front and Punchestown just had to carry on galloping to pass him. He has a great record away from Cheltenham beaten just once (by a short head) 1111121 but his jumping still doesn't convince. I'm going to take a chance on Deep Purple. He's fairly useful on his day and though he has plenty to find with Denman he is closely matched with all the others. He's not been seen to his best since pulling up in the King George in 2009 but he did run a good 3rd behind Nacarat at Wetherby since, giving Nacarat 10lb beaten 6 1/2 lengths. It's confusing as to why Deep Purple has not been tried at this trip more often as his form over 25f reads 13 and he was staying on late both times. He's been freshened up by a run behind Riverside Theatre in February, keep away from Cheltenham to come here and he could just have the beating of these. The track will suit him having won at sharp tracks like Stratford, Taunton and Newton Abbot in the past, the flatter track will play to his strengths as he's shown improved form at Kempton and Huntingdon. I'd give him a good shout at good odds.
Selection:
Deep Purple 0.5pts win @ 9/1. (Bet365, Ladbrokes, Paddy Power)
16:15 Aintree Red Rum Handicap
Leo's Lucky Star is favourite at 5/1 and with a 7lb pull with Grand Annual winner Oiseau De Nuit he may reverse form but it should be close between them but with a line through Cornas the selection has to be Woolcombe Folly. Cornas beat Leo's Lucky Star by 9 3/4 lengths giving him 6lb and Cornas also beat Tchico Polos by 2 3/4 lengths in receipt of 4lb in that same race. Leo's Lucky Star is 5lb better off with Tchico Polos for that but he may even struggle reverse that form. Woolcombe Folly demolished Cornas in receipt of 1lb. He beat him by 24 lengths and looked to have plenty in hand. He didn't seem right in the Queen Mother Champion Chase and his form at Cheltenham is poor reading 010, but he is unbeaten for the season going into the festival each time and it has to be said that he is very much unsuited by that undulating track. Not given a hard race at Cheltenham and will come here back in a handicap relatively fresh. He's up 13lb for that last win but the way he won suggested he won't be troubled by that sort of rise. Ruby Walsh rides Tchico Polos of the 2 Nicholls runners but that is more due to the fact the Woolcombe Folly may need Ryan Mahon's 5lb claim to reduce his weight a little. He has to give 4lb to Tchico Polos and 21lb to Leo's Lucky Star but I think he is more than capable of doing so. The ground will suit and so will a flatter track. He ran a quicker time than Master Minded over the same CD at the Tingle Creek meeting and if Master Minded was in this race he'd surely be around even money favourite if not shorter, so at 7/1 Woolcombe Folly looks cracking value.
Selection:
Woolcombe Folly 1.5pts win @ 7/1 (Ladbrokes)
Good luck with all your bets.
Tuesday 5 April 2011
Not Confident.
I again have no time. The runner yesterday was beaten almost on the line leaving the blog in further downfall, -5.4pts.
15:10 Beverley
Selection:
Beat The Bell 1pts e/way @ 15/2 (Victor Chandler)
15:10 Beverley
Selection:
Beat The Bell 1pts e/way @ 15/2 (Victor Chandler)
Monday 4 April 2011
Tuesdays Racing.
Another disappointed run for the blog yesterday, Vinces was the selection and he was never really put into the race but he ran on strongly to take 3rd, with hindsight I should have put it up as an e/way selection especially at 8/1 but there we go, we can't change the past.
Selection:
Vinces 1pts win @ 8/1+. Result - 3rd @ 8/1. -1pts.
Daily Profit: -1pts.
Overall Profit: -4.4pts.
I'm going to start taking a good look at Aintree tomorrow and hopefully I can find a few winners. I am hoping that Tataniano will be turned out somewhere but seeing as he wasn't fit enough for Cheltenham after picking up a little injury who knows, he might be out at some point. I've already had a bet on Quinz for the Grand National, I took 160 on Betfair before the Racing Post Chase as Philip Hobbs said before that win that if he did win he'd be 'well-in' for the Grand National, I'd already backed Quinz for the Racing Post Chase, I expected a win so I thought no harm in having a few spare pounds at such a big price. Anyway, on to tomorrows racing and I have one selection in a competitive race but I'd give him a good chance.
15:10 Pontefract Dalby Stand Handicap
Tom Sawyer was well backed to win a 3 runner A/W handicap last week but he was beaten by the improving Joe Le Taxi, he should come on for that first run of the season but this is a tougher handicap and he could have his work cut out. Mutajare is one of two Mark Johnston runners, he won his maiden race impressively but his handicap mark of 85 looks stiff enough. Flynn's Boy is looking for the hat-trick but this is harder and though improving there are some more attractive betting opportunities. My Single Malt could run a big race but Tom Tate's runners aren't as well forward as some other trainers and Tim Easterby's runner Another Citizen is another one who will come on plenty for the run. State Of Mind comes from the in-form Paul Cole yard and he could be on a fair mark of 80, the claimer Duilio De Silva is not someone I know much about but he claims 7lb and he may yet be 'good for his claim' but being out of Zamindar he was always likely to be best as a 3yo and may not have progressed as much as some other the winter. The selection is Lexi's Hero who won a maiden at Pontefract beating Podgies Boy by 6 lengths off level weights with Jack Smugde 1/2 length further back in 3rd. Podgies Boy didn't win on his next 3 maiden starts but he won a seller then 2 handicaps off 67 and 74. When he won off 74 he beat Palm Pilot, who won all 3 starts since and is rated 8lb higher now (68-76) and Geordie Iris was back in 3rd and he too has won all starts since including a claimer then 2 handicaps and is rated 6lb higher now (74-80). Jack Smudge went on to win his next maiden start then 3 straight handicaps off marks of 73, 77 and 83 and is now rated 88. The one handicap race that Lexi's Hero contested was off a mark of 90 in which he finished 5th of 8 on soft ground which wouldn't have suited. The form of that race does look strong though as 4th placed First Class Favour won 2 of his next 3 starts and is now rated 14lb higher, 3rd placed Loki's Revenge won 2 handicaps since and is rated 10lb higher than his mark that day, 2nd was Jamesway who was unlucky to finish just 7th in a listed race next time after not getting a clear run for the most part of the last 2 furlongs, beaten just 3 3/4 lengths. Though the winner of Lexi's Hero's handicap, Foghorn Leghorn, hasn't won since he did however contest a strong looking Middle Park won by Dream Ahead and Foghorn Leghorn is now officially on a 20lb higher mark than when he won that handicap. Lexi's Hero disappointed on his last start of the year but that was in a strong listed race and he had been through a long hard season, he will be much better suited by returning to handicap company after a break. He's been dropped 4lb for his one handicap run which will help his chances in this same grade, he's posted a best RPR of 90, the 2nd highest posted by any runner in this race, beaten only by Satin Love who has been largely regressive since. Lexi's Hero is out of Invincible Spirit so he can be expected to come on from 2yo to 3yo and with Kevin Ryan having his runners quite forward at this early stage of the season (5 winners, 5 seconds and 3 thirds from 22 runners in the last 14 days) I expect a good showing. There is due to be some rain overnight at Pontefract, the current going of good to firm would have suited Lexi's Hero but aslong as it's no worse than good to soft come race time he has strong claims.
Selection:
Lexi's Hero 1pts win @ 6/1 (Paddy Power).
Good luck with all your bets.
Selection:
Vinces 1pts win @ 8/1+. Result - 3rd @ 8/1. -1pts.
Daily Profit: -1pts.
Overall Profit: -4.4pts.
I'm going to start taking a good look at Aintree tomorrow and hopefully I can find a few winners. I am hoping that Tataniano will be turned out somewhere but seeing as he wasn't fit enough for Cheltenham after picking up a little injury who knows, he might be out at some point. I've already had a bet on Quinz for the Grand National, I took 160 on Betfair before the Racing Post Chase as Philip Hobbs said before that win that if he did win he'd be 'well-in' for the Grand National, I'd already backed Quinz for the Racing Post Chase, I expected a win so I thought no harm in having a few spare pounds at such a big price. Anyway, on to tomorrows racing and I have one selection in a competitive race but I'd give him a good chance.
15:10 Pontefract Dalby Stand Handicap
Tom Sawyer was well backed to win a 3 runner A/W handicap last week but he was beaten by the improving Joe Le Taxi, he should come on for that first run of the season but this is a tougher handicap and he could have his work cut out. Mutajare is one of two Mark Johnston runners, he won his maiden race impressively but his handicap mark of 85 looks stiff enough. Flynn's Boy is looking for the hat-trick but this is harder and though improving there are some more attractive betting opportunities. My Single Malt could run a big race but Tom Tate's runners aren't as well forward as some other trainers and Tim Easterby's runner Another Citizen is another one who will come on plenty for the run. State Of Mind comes from the in-form Paul Cole yard and he could be on a fair mark of 80, the claimer Duilio De Silva is not someone I know much about but he claims 7lb and he may yet be 'good for his claim' but being out of Zamindar he was always likely to be best as a 3yo and may not have progressed as much as some other the winter. The selection is Lexi's Hero who won a maiden at Pontefract beating Podgies Boy by 6 lengths off level weights with Jack Smugde 1/2 length further back in 3rd. Podgies Boy didn't win on his next 3 maiden starts but he won a seller then 2 handicaps off 67 and 74. When he won off 74 he beat Palm Pilot, who won all 3 starts since and is rated 8lb higher now (68-76) and Geordie Iris was back in 3rd and he too has won all starts since including a claimer then 2 handicaps and is rated 6lb higher now (74-80). Jack Smudge went on to win his next maiden start then 3 straight handicaps off marks of 73, 77 and 83 and is now rated 88. The one handicap race that Lexi's Hero contested was off a mark of 90 in which he finished 5th of 8 on soft ground which wouldn't have suited. The form of that race does look strong though as 4th placed First Class Favour won 2 of his next 3 starts and is now rated 14lb higher, 3rd placed Loki's Revenge won 2 handicaps since and is rated 10lb higher than his mark that day, 2nd was Jamesway who was unlucky to finish just 7th in a listed race next time after not getting a clear run for the most part of the last 2 furlongs, beaten just 3 3/4 lengths. Though the winner of Lexi's Hero's handicap, Foghorn Leghorn, hasn't won since he did however contest a strong looking Middle Park won by Dream Ahead and Foghorn Leghorn is now officially on a 20lb higher mark than when he won that handicap. Lexi's Hero disappointed on his last start of the year but that was in a strong listed race and he had been through a long hard season, he will be much better suited by returning to handicap company after a break. He's been dropped 4lb for his one handicap run which will help his chances in this same grade, he's posted a best RPR of 90, the 2nd highest posted by any runner in this race, beaten only by Satin Love who has been largely regressive since. Lexi's Hero is out of Invincible Spirit so he can be expected to come on from 2yo to 3yo and with Kevin Ryan having his runners quite forward at this early stage of the season (5 winners, 5 seconds and 3 thirds from 22 runners in the last 14 days) I expect a good showing. There is due to be some rain overnight at Pontefract, the current going of good to firm would have suited Lexi's Hero but aslong as it's no worse than good to soft come race time he has strong claims.
Selection:
Lexi's Hero 1pts win @ 6/1 (Paddy Power).
Good luck with all your bets.
Sunday 3 April 2011
No Time.
I have no time again today, but I do have a selection.
Yesterday was a luckless day, Joe Packet never travelled as well as he can and never got into the race. Much the opposite for New Leyf, travelled well but didn't pick up in the way he suggested he could.
Selections:
New Leyf 1pts win @ 7/1. Result - 3rd @ 6/1. -1pts.
Joe Packet 0.5pts e/way @ 25/1. Result - Unpl @ 20/1. -1pts.
Daily Profit: -2pts.
Overall Profit: -3.4pts.
Tomorrows runner is at Folkestone.
17:30 Folkestone
Vinces looks well-handicapped back on turf. His last mark when he ran on turf was 61, he's not ran all that well on the A/W since and returns here on a mark of 53 with a 5lb claimer to boot. He normally runs his race on turf and could be well in. The cut in the ground is fine and so is the 12f trip.
Selection:
Vinces 1pts win @ 8/1+
Yesterday was a luckless day, Joe Packet never travelled as well as he can and never got into the race. Much the opposite for New Leyf, travelled well but didn't pick up in the way he suggested he could.
Selections:
New Leyf 1pts win @ 7/1. Result - 3rd @ 6/1. -1pts.
Joe Packet 0.5pts e/way @ 25/1. Result - Unpl @ 20/1. -1pts.
Daily Profit: -2pts.
Overall Profit: -3.4pts.
Tomorrows runner is at Folkestone.
17:30 Folkestone
Vinces looks well-handicapped back on turf. His last mark when he ran on turf was 61, he's not ran all that well on the A/W since and returns here on a mark of 53 with a 5lb claimer to boot. He normally runs his race on turf and could be well in. The cut in the ground is fine and so is the 12f trip.
Selection:
Vinces 1pts win @ 8/1+
Saturday 2 April 2011
A Class Apart.
Doncaster saw the proper start to the flat season yesterday. There was an obvious draw bias this year as both the Spring Mile and Lincoln were dominated by highly drawn runners, the Spring Mile saw 4 of the first 5 drawn stands side, not much difference between that and in the Lincoln where 3 of the 5 first were drawn high.
The winner of the Spring Mile was Eton Forever, he proved himself extremely well-handicapped by cruising to victory in what was suppose to be a highly competitive handicap (The whole field seperated by just 5lb on Official Ratings). Roger Varian trained the Neil Callan ridden winner, it was just Varian's second runner since taking over from the now retired Michael Jarvis. Eton Forever beat Dance and Dance by 3 3/4 lengths with Manassas a further 1 3/4 lengths back in third. The first one home from the low drawn runners was Justonefortheroad for Richard Fahey and Paul Hanagan but he was ultimately easily beaten by 6 lengths.
The Lincoln was the feature race of the day and that was just as easily won by Sweet Lightning. Michael Dods teamed up with back-to-back Lincoln winner Johnny Murtagh to guide this one home. He'd had a somewhat patchy 3 race campaign over at Meydan but fitness told as he ran out a ready winner. Fahey trained the second, Brae Hill with Jamies Spencer aboard, 2 1/2 lengths the official distance. Dubai Hills finished a decent third, he was drawn in stall 6 and forced to race on the wrong side. He was beaten 8 1/2 lengths third but a decent run nonetheless.
Also on the card, Bonfire Knight showed plenty of improvement from a 3yo to a 4yo, he travelled much the best throughout and though the turn of foot was blistering he had plenty left in the tank come the line, there looks to be plenty of room to manoever from his mark of 85, which will obviously be amended now and J J Quinn could have fun with Bonfire Knight this season.
I put up 4 blog selections yesterday but unfortunately Cobbs Quay was withdrawn from the maiden stakes at Doncaster and Extra Bold, my one selection over fences, never opened up at the advised 5/1+ and went off as short as 3/1. Easily beaten a long way out, it's lucky we never got our price.
From the ones that did end up as eventual selections we had one come placed at 16/1. That was Dance and Dance who as I already mentioned was a good second in the Spring Mile. The other runner, Prime Exhibit was keen throughout the Lincoln and couldn't quicken when it mattered, the draw in stall 1 couldn't have helped none either but who was I to know which side would be quicker?
Selections:
Dance and Dance 0.5pts e/way @ 16/1. Result - 2nd @ 16/1. +1.5pts.
Prime Exhibit 0.5pts e/way @ 9/1. Result - 12th @ 9/1. -1pts.
Cobbs Quay 1pts win @ 4/1+. Result - NR. +/- 0pts.
Extra Bold 1pts win @ 5/1+. Result - PU @ 3/1. +/- 0pts. (Didn't open or start at required price).
Daily Profit: +0.5pts.
Overall Profit: -1.4pts.
Tomorrow is day two of the Doncaster Lincoln meeting. This is where I will be concentrating on again and hopefully find a decent placed runner atleast.
14:45 Doncaster Home Of Betting Handicap
Lord Aeryn is the unexposed runner who could be ahead of his mark. He won late on off a mark of 71 on good ground at Ayr and ran well in his attempt to follow up off a 6lb higher mark. The extra trip didn't suit him though, neither did the cut in the ground. He finished 2nd that day and wasn't disgraced, the winner went on to win again next time off 6lb higher and was only beaten 3/4 length in his hat-trick bid. Lord Aeryn put in one of his worst efforts on his last start when 5th off his current mark but again the cut in the ground wouldn't have suited. He will get his favoured quicker going today and with Paul Hanagan back up he should run his race. Fahey is going well right now too. My main concern is the lack of a run, he may just need this. Fitness won;t be a problem with New Leyf who put in a career best when winning a race of this nature (0-85) on his last start in March. He badly needed his first run of the season in February and put that behind him when beating the quirky Stefanki by a short head. That came off a mark of 84 and was penalised 4lb for that now rated 88 but he has a 10lb lower mark on the turf and he should be able to take advantage of that as he has improved a greta deal over the winter. His best form comes on the A/W but he put in a decent effort on good ground from this mark of 78 at Newmarket midway through last season beaten 1/2 length. The winner went on to be second in a stronger race off 5lb higher next time so the form is there for all to see. If he can reproduce his latest A/W run now switched surface he is a major player.
Selection:
New Leyf 1pts win @ 7/1 (William Hill)
15:55 Doncaster Williamhill.com Handicap
Plenty of chanes with the likes of Hoof It, Colonel Mak and Horseradish all winners of decent handicaps in the not so distant past. Colonel Mak has a good drawn in stall 20 (based on yesterdays runnings) but Hoof It (9) and Horseradish (4) don't look to have been dealt easy draws. Waffle (17) is another one with a chance off his current mark. The likes of Medicean Man (6), who would be my fancy had he been drawn better. He ran well on his seasonal reapperance behind Flipando (2), he's on 8lb better terms back on turf and should reverse that form. Wildcat Wizard (18) looks to have plenty to find with those two on that running but the draw could play a big part in the running of todays race and he may have it in him to reverse that form from a much better draw. He's sure to come on for that first run and may find the right amount of improvement but I think one o the higher priced runners have a cracking chance. Joe Packet has been given a good drawn in stall 22. He does need a couple of things to come right for him but they both look highly likely. He needs a strong pace to run off and with Parisian Pyramid one who can dictate the pace amongst others he is sure to get a go tow into the race and he can also bag himself the stads rail from his good draw. The other thing he needs is good ground. The is little rain forcast and some fairly strong winds which should dry the ground out further. The times of the races yesterday suggested the ground was riding quick enough for him to be seen at his best. He wants a strongly run 6f as he travels sweetly and he has a lightning turn of foot to finish off. He showed that last season when winning 3 good ground handicaps on the spin and again when he won another good ground handicap at Sandown later in the season beating Cheveton by a comfortable 3 lengths over 5f giving that one 3lb. Cheveton went on to win next time off 1lb higher and doubled up off a further 7lb higher when he beat Hoof It by a shot head in receipt of 2lb. Joe Packet ran well in defeat off this mark at Ascot in 0-100 company. He looked to come with a winning chance but a drifter across the track put him off slightly and he got little room close home, he was eventually well beaten but he showed that he can win off this mark. His last two races he has good excuses as he was very much unsuited by soft ground at Newmarket onhis last run of the season and he doesn't get on well with the A/W surfaces and that was basically just a prep/fitness run. He'll come on for that run and should give a good account of himself.
Selection:
Joe Packet 0.5pts e/way @ 25/1 (Victor Chandler)
Over in Ireland they have a Group 3 contest in which I think the once raced Youm Mutamiez could run a big race and the Listed event after has the returning St Nicholas Abbey, he should prove 'a class apart' and win that on his way to Group wins later in the season.
Good luck with all your bets.
The winner of the Spring Mile was Eton Forever, he proved himself extremely well-handicapped by cruising to victory in what was suppose to be a highly competitive handicap (The whole field seperated by just 5lb on Official Ratings). Roger Varian trained the Neil Callan ridden winner, it was just Varian's second runner since taking over from the now retired Michael Jarvis. Eton Forever beat Dance and Dance by 3 3/4 lengths with Manassas a further 1 3/4 lengths back in third. The first one home from the low drawn runners was Justonefortheroad for Richard Fahey and Paul Hanagan but he was ultimately easily beaten by 6 lengths.
The Lincoln was the feature race of the day and that was just as easily won by Sweet Lightning. Michael Dods teamed up with back-to-back Lincoln winner Johnny Murtagh to guide this one home. He'd had a somewhat patchy 3 race campaign over at Meydan but fitness told as he ran out a ready winner. Fahey trained the second, Brae Hill with Jamies Spencer aboard, 2 1/2 lengths the official distance. Dubai Hills finished a decent third, he was drawn in stall 6 and forced to race on the wrong side. He was beaten 8 1/2 lengths third but a decent run nonetheless.
Also on the card, Bonfire Knight showed plenty of improvement from a 3yo to a 4yo, he travelled much the best throughout and though the turn of foot was blistering he had plenty left in the tank come the line, there looks to be plenty of room to manoever from his mark of 85, which will obviously be amended now and J J Quinn could have fun with Bonfire Knight this season.
I put up 4 blog selections yesterday but unfortunately Cobbs Quay was withdrawn from the maiden stakes at Doncaster and Extra Bold, my one selection over fences, never opened up at the advised 5/1+ and went off as short as 3/1. Easily beaten a long way out, it's lucky we never got our price.
From the ones that did end up as eventual selections we had one come placed at 16/1. That was Dance and Dance who as I already mentioned was a good second in the Spring Mile. The other runner, Prime Exhibit was keen throughout the Lincoln and couldn't quicken when it mattered, the draw in stall 1 couldn't have helped none either but who was I to know which side would be quicker?
Selections:
Dance and Dance 0.5pts e/way @ 16/1. Result - 2nd @ 16/1. +1.5pts.
Prime Exhibit 0.5pts e/way @ 9/1. Result - 12th @ 9/1. -1pts.
Cobbs Quay 1pts win @ 4/1+. Result - NR. +/- 0pts.
Extra Bold 1pts win @ 5/1+. Result - PU @ 3/1. +/- 0pts. (Didn't open or start at required price).
Daily Profit: +0.5pts.
Overall Profit: -1.4pts.
Tomorrow is day two of the Doncaster Lincoln meeting. This is where I will be concentrating on again and hopefully find a decent placed runner atleast.
14:45 Doncaster Home Of Betting Handicap
Lord Aeryn is the unexposed runner who could be ahead of his mark. He won late on off a mark of 71 on good ground at Ayr and ran well in his attempt to follow up off a 6lb higher mark. The extra trip didn't suit him though, neither did the cut in the ground. He finished 2nd that day and wasn't disgraced, the winner went on to win again next time off 6lb higher and was only beaten 3/4 length in his hat-trick bid. Lord Aeryn put in one of his worst efforts on his last start when 5th off his current mark but again the cut in the ground wouldn't have suited. He will get his favoured quicker going today and with Paul Hanagan back up he should run his race. Fahey is going well right now too. My main concern is the lack of a run, he may just need this. Fitness won;t be a problem with New Leyf who put in a career best when winning a race of this nature (0-85) on his last start in March. He badly needed his first run of the season in February and put that behind him when beating the quirky Stefanki by a short head. That came off a mark of 84 and was penalised 4lb for that now rated 88 but he has a 10lb lower mark on the turf and he should be able to take advantage of that as he has improved a greta deal over the winter. His best form comes on the A/W but he put in a decent effort on good ground from this mark of 78 at Newmarket midway through last season beaten 1/2 length. The winner went on to be second in a stronger race off 5lb higher next time so the form is there for all to see. If he can reproduce his latest A/W run now switched surface he is a major player.
Selection:
New Leyf 1pts win @ 7/1 (William Hill)
15:55 Doncaster Williamhill.com Handicap
Plenty of chanes with the likes of Hoof It, Colonel Mak and Horseradish all winners of decent handicaps in the not so distant past. Colonel Mak has a good drawn in stall 20 (based on yesterdays runnings) but Hoof It (9) and Horseradish (4) don't look to have been dealt easy draws. Waffle (17) is another one with a chance off his current mark. The likes of Medicean Man (6), who would be my fancy had he been drawn better. He ran well on his seasonal reapperance behind Flipando (2), he's on 8lb better terms back on turf and should reverse that form. Wildcat Wizard (18) looks to have plenty to find with those two on that running but the draw could play a big part in the running of todays race and he may have it in him to reverse that form from a much better draw. He's sure to come on for that first run and may find the right amount of improvement but I think one o the higher priced runners have a cracking chance. Joe Packet has been given a good drawn in stall 22. He does need a couple of things to come right for him but they both look highly likely. He needs a strong pace to run off and with Parisian Pyramid one who can dictate the pace amongst others he is sure to get a go tow into the race and he can also bag himself the stads rail from his good draw. The other thing he needs is good ground. The is little rain forcast and some fairly strong winds which should dry the ground out further. The times of the races yesterday suggested the ground was riding quick enough for him to be seen at his best. He wants a strongly run 6f as he travels sweetly and he has a lightning turn of foot to finish off. He showed that last season when winning 3 good ground handicaps on the spin and again when he won another good ground handicap at Sandown later in the season beating Cheveton by a comfortable 3 lengths over 5f giving that one 3lb. Cheveton went on to win next time off 1lb higher and doubled up off a further 7lb higher when he beat Hoof It by a shot head in receipt of 2lb. Joe Packet ran well in defeat off this mark at Ascot in 0-100 company. He looked to come with a winning chance but a drifter across the track put him off slightly and he got little room close home, he was eventually well beaten but he showed that he can win off this mark. His last two races he has good excuses as he was very much unsuited by soft ground at Newmarket onhis last run of the season and he doesn't get on well with the A/W surfaces and that was basically just a prep/fitness run. He'll come on for that run and should give a good account of himself.
Selection:
Joe Packet 0.5pts e/way @ 25/1 (Victor Chandler)
Over in Ireland they have a Group 3 contest in which I think the once raced Youm Mutamiez could run a big race and the Listed event after has the returning St Nicholas Abbey, he should prove 'a class apart' and win that on his way to Group wins later in the season.
Good luck with all your bets.
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