Saturday 2 April 2011

A Class Apart.

Doncaster saw the proper start to the flat season yesterday. There was an obvious draw bias this year as both the Spring Mile and Lincoln were dominated by highly drawn runners, the Spring Mile saw 4 of the first 5 drawn stands side, not much difference between that and in the Lincoln where 3 of the 5 first were drawn high.

The winner of the Spring Mile was Eton Forever, he proved himself extremely well-handicapped by cruising to victory in what was suppose to be a highly competitive handicap (The whole field seperated by just 5lb on Official Ratings). Roger Varian trained the Neil Callan ridden winner, it was just Varian's second runner since taking over from the now retired Michael Jarvis. Eton Forever beat Dance and Dance by 3 3/4 lengths with Manassas a further 1 3/4 lengths back in third. The first one home from the low drawn runners was Justonefortheroad for Richard Fahey and Paul Hanagan but he was ultimately easily beaten by 6 lengths.

The Lincoln was the feature race of the day and that was just as easily won by Sweet Lightning. Michael Dods teamed up with back-to-back Lincoln winner Johnny Murtagh to guide this one home. He'd had a somewhat patchy 3 race campaign over at Meydan but fitness told as he ran out a ready winner. Fahey trained the second, Brae Hill with Jamies Spencer aboard, 2 1/2 lengths the official distance. Dubai Hills finished a decent third, he was drawn in stall 6 and forced to race on the wrong side. He was beaten 8 1/2 lengths third but a decent run nonetheless.

Also on the card, Bonfire Knight showed plenty of improvement from a 3yo to a 4yo, he travelled much the best throughout and though the turn of foot was blistering he had plenty left in the tank come the line, there looks to be plenty of room to manoever from his mark of 85, which will obviously be amended now and J J Quinn could have fun with Bonfire Knight this season.

I put up 4 blog selections yesterday but unfortunately Cobbs Quay was withdrawn from the maiden stakes at Doncaster and Extra Bold, my one selection over fences, never opened up at the advised 5/1+ and went off as short as 3/1. Easily beaten a long way out, it's lucky we never got our price.
From the ones that did end up as eventual selections we had one come placed at 16/1. That was Dance and Dance who as I already mentioned was a good second in the Spring Mile. The other runner, Prime Exhibit was keen throughout the Lincoln and couldn't quicken when it mattered, the draw in stall 1 couldn't have helped none either but who was I to know which side would be quicker?

Selections:
Dance and Dance 0.5pts e/way @ 16/1. Result - 2nd @ 16/1. +1.5pts.
Prime Exhibit 0.5pts e/way @ 9/1. Result - 12th @ 9/1. -1pts.
Cobbs Quay 1pts win @ 4/1+. Result - NR. +/- 0pts.
Extra Bold 1pts win @ 5/1+. Result - PU @ 3/1. +/- 0pts. (Didn't open or start at required price).

Daily Profit: +0.5pts.
Overall Profit: -1.4pts.

Tomorrow is day two of the Doncaster Lincoln meeting. This is where I will be concentrating on again and hopefully find a decent placed runner atleast.

14:45 Doncaster Home Of Betting Handicap
Lord Aeryn is the unexposed runner who could be ahead of his mark. He won late on off a mark of 71 on good ground at Ayr and ran well in his attempt to follow up off a 6lb higher mark. The extra trip didn't suit him though, neither did the cut in the ground. He finished 2nd that day and wasn't disgraced, the winner went on to win again next time off 6lb higher and was only beaten 3/4 length in his hat-trick bid. Lord Aeryn put in one of his worst efforts on his last start when 5th off his current mark but again the cut in the ground wouldn't have suited. He will get his favoured quicker going today and with Paul Hanagan back up he should run his race. Fahey is going well right now too. My main concern is the lack of a run, he may just need this. Fitness won;t be a problem with New Leyf who put in a career best when winning a race of this nature (0-85) on his last start in March. He badly needed his first run of the season in February and put that behind him when beating the quirky Stefanki by a short head. That came off a mark of 84 and was penalised 4lb for that now rated 88 but he has a 10lb lower mark on the turf and he should be able to take advantage of that as he has improved a greta deal over the winter. His best form comes on the A/W but he put in a decent effort on good ground from this mark of 78 at Newmarket midway through last season beaten 1/2 length. The winner went on to be second in a stronger race off 5lb higher next time so the form is there for all to see. If he can reproduce his latest A/W run now switched surface he is a major player.

Selection:
New Leyf 1pts win @ 7/1 (William Hill)

15:55 Doncaster Williamhill.com Handicap
Plenty of chanes with the likes of Hoof It, Colonel Mak and Horseradish all winners of decent handicaps in the not so distant past. Colonel Mak has a good drawn in stall 20 (based on yesterdays runnings) but Hoof It (9) and Horseradish (4) don't look to have been dealt easy draws. Waffle (17) is another one with a chance off his current mark. The likes of Medicean Man (6), who would be my fancy had he been drawn better. He ran well on his seasonal reapperance behind Flipando (2), he's on 8lb better terms back on turf and should reverse that form. Wildcat Wizard (18) looks to have plenty to find with those two on that running but the draw could play a big part in the running of todays race and he may have it in him to reverse that form from a much better draw. He's sure to come on for that first run and may find the right amount of improvement but I think one o the higher priced runners have a cracking chance. Joe Packet has been given a good drawn in stall 22. He does need a couple of things to come right for him but they both look highly likely. He needs a strong pace to run off and with Parisian Pyramid one who can dictate the pace amongst others he is sure to get a go tow into the race and he can also bag himself the stads rail from his good draw. The other thing he needs is good ground. The is little rain forcast and some fairly strong winds which should dry the ground out further. The times of the races yesterday suggested the ground was riding quick enough for him to be seen at his best. He wants a strongly run 6f as he travels sweetly and he has a lightning turn of foot to finish off. He showed that last season when winning 3 good ground handicaps on the spin and again when he won another good ground handicap at Sandown later in the season beating Cheveton by a comfortable 3 lengths over 5f giving that one 3lb. Cheveton went on to win next time off 1lb higher and doubled up off a further 7lb higher when he beat Hoof It by a shot head in receipt of 2lb. Joe Packet ran well in defeat off this mark at Ascot in 0-100 company. He looked to come with a winning chance but a drifter across the track put him off slightly and he got little room close home, he was eventually well beaten but he showed that he can win off this mark. His last two races he has good excuses as he was very much unsuited by soft ground at Newmarket onhis last run of the season and he doesn't get on well with the A/W surfaces and that was basically just a prep/fitness run. He'll come on for that run and should give a good account of himself.

Selection:
Joe Packet 0.5pts e/way @ 25/1 (Victor Chandler)

Over in Ireland they have a Group 3 contest in which I think the once raced Youm Mutamiez could run a big race and the Listed event after has the returning St Nicholas Abbey, he should prove 'a class apart' and win that on his way to Group wins later in the season.

Good luck with all your bets.

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