The flat season got underway yesterday at Catterick, it was a fairly decent day and I quite enjoyed the flat racing for the first time. I am definitely looking forward to the season now. There are plenty of talking horses already and it's sure to be exciting. The likes of Canford Cliffs, Dick Turpin and Dream Ahead are stand outs for me. I also think youngsters such as Retainer (First run of the season at Leicester today), the Richard Hannon trainer horse hosed up on debut. The second horse, Sikeeb, was put up as Clive Brittains juvenile to follow for the year and though he failed to deliver very much he did win second time out boosting Retainers form. He's likely to be a short-priced favourite in this conditions race but I'm almost certain he'll go on to better things.
The blog had one selection earlier and it wasn't a winner. Dazeen ran fairly well in 8th place. He was always towards the rear and plugged on under little pressure. He has a race within him from this sort of mark still, he's likely to be dropped a few lbs for this too. He's one to watch out for next time over 6f or 7f.
Selection:
Dazeen 0.5pts e/way @ 12/1. Result - 8th @ 12/1. -1pts.
Daily Profit: -1pts.
Overall Profit: +3.1pts.
Tomorrow has a few decent horses on show, the aforementioned Retainer should make a winning return to action on the flat and Sizing India has been the talk of the town due to his work at home. He should be hard to beat in Ludlow's bumper. He's currently trading at 2.2/1 on Betfair and that looks value against a slightly moderate field. They could pair up for a nice double. (paying around 4/1 at current Betfair odds.)
My blog selection was tough to find, I originally looked at the last at Leicester in which I couldn't split Space Station and Nimue. The latter has been much better since taking up front-running tactics, he saw off a mediocre field with a brilliant display of speed over 7 furlongs last time. He is back from a long break but his handicap mark of 80 could look lenient. He ran once in a handicap earlier in his career off this current mark, that was over 8 furlongs and he blatantly didn't stay that trip. He is back over 7 this time and with no other confirmed front runners he could get one of those ever so dangerous soft leads. Space Station will relish that pace to run off, this is also his trip and he is also on a mark he can run well off. He came back to action at Kempton recently, drawn the widest of all. He wasn't given a hard ride that day and stayed on well showing his well being. He has his needed headgear back on today after not wearin them last time and I expect a big run from both. As soon as the odds opened up Nimue was 7/2 but he is now trading at 9/2 whereas Space Station opened at 9/2 and is now just 3/1. The value seems to have gone already.
My main selection is over hurdles though, Ludlow:
15:35 Ludlow 12 May Is Ladies Day Handicap Hurdle
This race does look like plenty could be involved but I am fairly confident that Mad Moose will come out on top. He was a convincing winner of a 20f hurdle at Haydock last time, staying on strongly. On that evidence he will stay this 21 furlongs perfectly well. He is under a 7lb penalty for that win but a change of jockeys has Sam Twiston-Davies jumping off for his younger brother Willie Twiston-Davies, the former claimed 3lb last time whereas young Will can claim 7lb effectively reducing the penalty by half. Mad Moose is due to go up a further 6lb in the future so he looks well in. Mad Moose posted a Racing Post Rating 5lb higher than his current RPR last time so again he looks well in. The race he won last time was overall weaker than this an he has everything tin his favour to go in again. Being out of presenting he is obviously well suited by the drying out ground which he will get again today. Current going: Good (sunny intervals). He showed on his hurdles run at Ludlow that he handles the track well. He made a mistake at the first fence and was held up patiently to get back into a rhythm, beaten 29 lengths 3rd but there was a lot to like about that too and racing post commnts after said he will win a hurdle race over further (that race was over 16f). The improving Havingotascoobydo is current favourite for the race but I think while he is on the up he will struggle with Mad Moose. Havingotascoobydo travels well into his races and that served him well when he won over CD on his second last start but next time out off a 7lb higher mark he travelled well again but when the eventual winner flew past he had no response and Havingotascoobydo found little off the bridle which has to be a worry. He posted a RPR 11lb inferior to Mad Moose's last time and though the drop back 1 furlong will suit he should struggl off a 3lb higher mark, still. I think the bigger dangers lie within the higher priced runners. Troubletimestwo was staying on over 20f last time and I think he'd have gone close to winning if not for being hampered and falling at the last. The leaders found little up the run-in and Troubletimestwo was closing. He has been dropped 1lb for that and the extra furlong will suit, as will the better ground. Nigel Twiston-Davies other runner, Briefcase has Paddy Brennan onboard which would suggest he is the stable first strong but at the prices the opposite is suggested. Briefcase travelled well into a stronger race than this last time but he found little for pressure too, though this is much weaker he may have to improve to beat Mad Moose. He is unexposed on just his second handicap start and there is sure to be a race in him off a mark of around 100 in the near future.
Selection:
Mad Moose 3pts win @ 3/1 (Paddy Power).
Good luck with all your bets.
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