1000 Guineas Thoughs:

Here is my take on the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket on May 1st:

White Moonstone - An unbeaten filly with huge potential but I'm worried that her sire, Dynaformer, produces better 2yo's rather than progressive horses making better 3yo's. White Moonstone was a good winner of her maiden and stepped straight up to Group 3 company in which she beat William Hill Lincoln hopeful Crying Lightning. She then readily dispatched of a Group 2 field on her first try at 8f on good ground at Doncaster but the second horse Al Madina is nothing to shout about. A maiden winner on debut but has been beaten twice by 5L by White Moonstone but since beatn 11L by Wooton Bassett and 13L by Abjer who has only won once and more recently been beaten by Roderic O'Connor (31L), Splash Point (15L), Reem (81L) and Crying Lightning (4L: boosts White Moonstone's form slightly). White Moonstone did however beat a fairly decent looking Group 1 field at Ascot. She travelled well and the first time she got into a battle she found plenty to see off Together and Theysken's Theory. She probably deserves to be favourite on previous form but I wouldn't want to be with her based on her sires ability to produce better 2yo's rather than 3yo's.

Havant - Another unbeaten filly. She looks very much a Guineas type in my eyes. Her two wins have come on ground with soft in the going but she is bred to be better on quicker ground. Her sire, Hailing, has a record of 38/392 on soft ground (10%) and 55/540 (12%) on good/soft ground but that goes up to 127/973 (13%) on good ground and further more to 163/1154 (14%) on good/firm ground. Both her wins have come over 7f and both have come at Newmarket which bodes well, but the way she drew clear when meeting the rising ground on both starts suggest she will relish the step up in trip. As does her breeding. Hailing was best around 10.5f but her record between 7-9f shows up well enough 181/1526 (12%). Her form of her maiden doesn't look the best having beaten Mia Madonna who is still a maiden but 3rd placed Lucky Meadows won at Lingfield on the A/W since. Havant then won a Group 3 on her second start on Middle Park day, all the times that day were quite slow but she demolished a good field. She had maiden winner and 10/3 favourite Look At Me 3 1/4 lengths second with group 2 and 3 winner since, Khawlah back in 3rd. Khawlah was always going to be better over further but the form still stands strong, back in 5th place was Lily Again who was beaten 8L but was beaten just 6 3/4 length by White Moonstone and 3 1/4 lengths by Memory beforehand (all on level weights). Havant looks to have plenty in her favour. She is currently favourite for the Oaks.

Misty For Me - She has some strong form. Well beaten in a Curragh maiden but she was sent off at 20/1 so not much was expected on debut but she won next time beating Katla when she was first ridden by Murtagh. She went into group 2 company next time in which she was beaten by Laughing Lashes (20/1 for Guineas) on yeilding ground. She reversed the form in the Moyglare next time on quicker ground which clearly suited but she did then go on to win her second group 1, this time on Arc day in France on very soft ground. She showed plenty of heart that day when beating off Helleborine. That was her first try over 8 furlongs and she should be even better on quicker ground over that trip. Being out of Galileo she is sure to be better over 10f and on better ground in the future so she is one to watch out for. She is sure to progress into a decent 3yo and I'd give her a good chance in this race as she has plenty of speed and battles on well.

Helleborine - She suffered her first defeat at the hands of Misty For Me on Arc day at Longchamp on very soft ground when going off at 10/11fav. She previouly had solid form though, she was a ready winner of two good ground races including an easy success in a listed race. She went on to win a group 3 on soft ground in what was her best win to date, she showed a decent turn of foot in the ground and put it to bed quickly, the 4th placed finisher (4th of 4) went on to win a group 3 race herself at a later date. Helleborine's best performace was arguably in defeat (putting up her best RPR). She travelled well to come upsides Misty For Me but the leader found a bit more to see off the challende. It'll be interesting to see the rivalry renewed at Newmarket as Helleborine too will be better on quicker ground. The thing I'm most worried about with this one is the trip. She travelled well but didn't find as much as you'd expect when Misty For Me battled on, she is bred for speed being out of Observatory and it's got to be a worry that she won't see this mile trip out well enough to trouble the top class field.

Memory - A nice looking filly who won the Group 3 Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot on just her second start. She then won the Cherry Hinton stakes (group 2) on her third start but was very disappointing at even money in the Moyglare. She finished an easily beaten 6th behind Misty For Me, Laughing Lashes and Together (beaten by White Moonstone) and it's a major worry that she found little. That was her first try at 7 furlongs having won her 3 previous starts at 6f. She is sure to be unsuited by the extra furlong and she is hard to fancy over 8 furlongs. Her wins have all come on quick ground which bodes well but she needs to find plenty with Misty For Me. She will be freshened up for this race and maybe a few hard races took it out of her late in the season. Being out of Danehill Dancer she should be just as good this year but I don't think she is up to some of these standard.

Hooray - She progressed well throughout the season last year. She was beaten by Memory in the Albany stakes at Ascot but she was probably drawn on the wrong side as the first 4 home were all drawn high. She was too keen early on in the Cherry Minton when again beaten by Memory, she hit the front but her early free-goings saw her reeled in late on. She did go on to win her last 3 starts of the season however. First of those 3 was a group 2 in which she reversed from with Margot Did (2nd in the Albany stakes) she was then a very good winner of an A/W group 3 race in which she beat Reckless Reward by a comfortable 3 3/4 lengths. Her best performance was in her final start when she ran away with a Newmarket Group 1 in which she beat some decent horses such as Rimth, Maqaasid, Ragsah and again Margot Did. She posted the best RPR of the season for a 2yo filly when winning that at RPR117 so she clearly progressed towards the end of the year. Though her sire, Invincible Spirit was best over 7.5 furlongs he does produce plenty of winners and his better strike rates actually come at 10f+. Hooray should stay this trip and is sure to have progressed well so I would expect her to be in the shake up come the end of this race.

Zoowraa - A strong travelling sort with a nice turn of foot. The form of her debut win, though impressive, is questionable. The second placed horse Calypso Magic has failed to get infront in 5 runs so far. Zoowraa then won a listed race next time beating a Gosden horse who was subsequently beaten 50 lengths in a group 2, but the 3rd placed in the race had previously beaten Khor Seed who won a listed race next time but was beaten 17 lengths by Hooray after so you'd have to argue that though Zoowraa has looked good, she hasn't been as good as some other likely runners. Likely to progress as a 3yo and for the extra distance but on breeding she is likely to find the going on Guineas day too quick (2000 Guineas was run on good/firm last year). Her sire, Azamour, has a 23% strike rate on soft ground and it is the same strike rate on good/soft ground but the winners he produces on quicker ground is just 11% on ground described as good.

Conclusion: This looks a very good renewal with a few unbeaten horses taking part. Though on previous form White Moonstone deserves to be favourite I have my doubts as to whether she'll be as good this year as she was last. The likes of Helleborine, Memory and Zoowraa have plenty to find too. Havant looks a smart prospect but I think she'll be even better over further and she is worth a bet in the Oaks instead of this. I think this rests between Hooray and Misty for Me. I am finding it hard to split them both so I would advise only small e/way bets on both as this is very competitive.

1000 Guineas Selections:
Misty For Me 0.5pts e/way @ 8/1 (Bet365, Ladbrokes, Sportingbet)
Hooray 0.5pts e/way @ 14/1 (Sky Bet)

Epsom Oaks Selection:
Havant 1pts win @ 15/2 (Sportingbet)