Aintree Day One.

Yesterdays runner came 3rd again, and as before, with hindsight I should of backed him e/way but there we go, again.

Daily Profit: -1pts.
Overall Profit: -6.4pts.

Here are the write-up's I promised this morning.

14:00 Aintree Liverpool Hurdle
Big Buck's and Grand Crus are likely to be hard to pass once again and the battle between them should be even better today as I don't feel Big Buck's produces his best at Aintree, he loves the Cheltenham hill and I don't think a flatter track like Aintree gives him the opportunity to gallop all over his rivals. It's a much sharper track and though that will not suit Grand Crus either, class should shine through. Having said that, with those doubts in my mind I thought it to be much wiser to search for an e/way horse at a price who could sneak past one of those two or in my dreams, both. Firstly I thought Carlito Brigante, he certainly should run his race on a track that will suit but I'm still not convinced. He didn't exactly have a hard race at Cheltenham but on first thoughts he won that race because he was 'well-handicapped' as it were. He was beaten by Alaivan previously off levels and Alaivan was beaten 2 1/2 lengths 6th in the County Hurdle next time. The step up in trip suited Carlito Brigante and he goes up even futher now, this will be run at a strong pace though at it's not the easiest race for him to try this trip first time. The Coral Cup was a slowly run affair (8.30s slower than standard) which helped, though he may run well this is a big step up and he is likely to struggle. Khyber Kim was fancied to win the Champion Hurdle by connections but in his ever rising age he may just not have the flat speed to deal with horses such as Hurricane Fly anymore and this step up in trip is interesting to say the least. I wouldn't want to be backing him today but he could spring a suprise if as good as ever, and let's not forget he won at this meeting last year. Knockara Beau sticks out to me as the best e/way bet. I orginally put him at 40/1 with Ladbrokes but he's currently 50/1 with Bet365 and on the same place terms (1/4 odds - 1, 2, 3 places). Knockara Beau was beaten 10 lengths by Grand Crus in the Cleeve Hurdle and even though he is on 4lb worse terms I think he could reduce that margin. Knockara Beau's form at Cheltenham over hurdles reads 54724 whereas Grand Crus shows stats of 112 and Grand Crus's form on a galloping track is much better than his form on sharper tracks (beaten at Aintree on debut and beaten twice at Taunton), it's much the opposite for Knockara Beau who on sharper tracks (all codes) goes much better (Aintree, Kelso, Musselburgh and Cartmel), his form reads 11P3117115. He was 4th in the Pertemps Final in a decent weight carrying performance giving away 19lb+ to the 4 horses who finished ahead of him and was only beaten around 14 lengths by the winner, who was given a fairly soft lead. He does have 14lb to find with Grand Crus and 19lb to find with Big Buck's but he is worth chancing on a track that clearly suits him at such a big price.

Selection:
Knockara Beau 0.5pts e/way @ 50/1 (Bet365)

15:05 Aintree Totesport Bowl Chase
Denman deserves to be favourite after a very good second to the classy Long Run in the Gold Cup but at 11/8 he is worth taking on. He was unsuited by the track on his one run here when he fell in this race in April 2009. He had a hard race at Cheltenhan and though it's been said his breathing operation has helped him get over his races better I still wouldn't want to take those short odds about him, especially as he's not won since 2009. Nacarat has been backed this morning but he won't want the ground to be too soft and he's an unconvincing sort who doesn't always see out his races. Carole's Legacy is having her last race of her career and it'll be brilliant if she can win but she's been nailed by a couple of fairly useful but not top class runners in handicaps lately, she has to find plenty now stepped up to Grade 1 company, she doesn't care what sort of track she runs on, she always runs her race so she can't be discounted in receipt of 7lb from the field. Punchestowns doesn't stay this far in my opinion, he was flattered to beat Pasco last time, that one went out like a light in front and Punchestown just had to carry on galloping to pass him. He has a great record away from Cheltenham beaten just once (by a short head) 1111121 but his jumping still doesn't convince. I'm going to take a chance on Deep Purple. He's fairly useful on his day and though he has plenty to find with Denman he is closely matched with all the others. He's not been seen to his best since pulling up in the King George in 2009 but he did run a good 3rd behind Nacarat at Wetherby since, giving Nacarat 10lb beaten 6 1/2 lengths. It's confusing as to why Deep Purple has not been tried at this trip more often as his form over 25f reads 13 and he was staying on late both times. He's been freshened up by a run behind Riverside Theatre in February, keep away from Cheltenham to come here and he could just have the beating of these. The track will suit him having won at sharp tracks like Stratford, Taunton and Newton Abbot in the past, the flatter track will play to his strengths as he's shown improved form at Kempton and Huntingdon. I'd give him a good shout at good odds.

Selection:
Deep Purple 0.5pts win @ 9/1. (Bet365, Ladbrokes, Paddy Power)

16:15 Aintree Red Rum Handicap
Leo's Lucky Star is favourite at 5/1 and with a 7lb pull with Grand Annual winner Oiseau De Nuit he may reverse form but it should be close between them but with a line through Cornas the selection has to be Woolcombe Folly. Cornas beat Leo's Lucky Star by 9 3/4 lengths giving him 6lb and Cornas also beat Tchico Polos by 2 3/4 lengths in receipt of 4lb in that same race. Leo's Lucky Star is 5lb better off with Tchico Polos for that but he may even struggle reverse that form. Woolcombe Folly demolished Cornas in receipt of 1lb. He beat him by 24 lengths and looked to have plenty in hand. He didn't seem right in the Queen Mother Champion Chase and his form at Cheltenham is poor reading 010, but he is unbeaten for the season going into the festival each time and it has to be said that he is very much unsuited by that undulating track. Not given a hard race at Cheltenham and will come here back in a handicap relatively fresh. He's up 13lb for that last win but the way he won suggested he won't be troubled by that sort of rise. Ruby Walsh rides Tchico Polos of the 2 Nicholls runners but that is more due to the fact the Woolcombe Folly may need Ryan Mahon's 5lb claim to reduce his weight a little. He has to give 4lb to Tchico Polos and 21lb to Leo's Lucky Star but I think he is more than capable of doing so. The ground will suit and so will a flatter track. He ran a quicker time than Master Minded over the same CD at the Tingle Creek meeting and if Master Minded was in this race he'd surely be around even money favourite if not shorter, so at 7/1 Woolcombe Folly looks cracking value.

Selection:
Woolcombe Folly 1.5pts win @ 7/1 (Ladbrokes)

Good luck with all your bets.